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For the 90-day bill recent value, see Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group, Monthly Economic Outlook, November 7, 2018,Note: Estimates are current as of November 21, 2018.Īs indicated, I expect little change in GDP growth, a bit higher inflation, slightly tighter employment markets, and higher interest rates.

Sources: For all of the 2018 recent values except the 90-day bill, see Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group, Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary, November 21, 2018. Before moving to the next section, I offer projections for the 2019 economy in table 1. The report ends with a visit to Yandle’s Reading Table and discusses three books that may be worth reading. After that, a spotlight is placed on Hawaii for this quarter’s state analysis. The section that follows takes a fresh look at how the Trump trade wars are generating a little-discussed facet of growing regulation that involves the granting of favors to trade-regulated firms. According to the data, the economy is definitely operating at a high level, and fortunately nothing in the data path presented in the section resembles a recessionary prospect. Using labor market data, the next section examines the recession question. The next section provides some supporting evidence along with a few anecdotes that explain how trade policy uncertainty interrupts plans to hire workers and expand manufacturing plants. This report will address the recession question but will first focus on the hesitating economy. What might this say about the prospects for another recession? Keep in mind, it is hesitation in a high-growth economy. Can we hear some distant growls? There is growing evidence that rising uncertainty regarding trade, interest rates, and other government policies is making managers and owners of businesses hesitate and review the situation before making major new job-creating investments. We must remember the rest of the story, though: when the three bears returned, and Goldilocks had to escape. In fact, some commentators are saying we have a Goldilocks economy where everything is just right. Put another way, on average, US workers and families are becoming better off. As an overall assessment of personal prosperity, real per capita GDP is also increasing. Perhaps more importantly, total workplace earnings, including bonuses and fringe benefits, are on the rise. The unemployment rate is reaching record lows construction activity, while weakening, is still high. The first estimate for Q3 2018 GDP growth came in with an annual rate of 3.5 percent-not as good as Q2’s 4.2 percent, but a lot better than 2017’s 2.8 percent growth for the year. By most of the important measures-the kind that fill tables and text in the annual Economic Report of the President-the US economy is on a roll.